Last month, the Institute for the Future and the University of Phoenix Research Institute released Future Work Skills 2020, a report that “analyzes key drivers that will reshape the landscape of work and identifies key work skills needed in the next 10 years.”
The report included a cool-looking summary map that I immediately gravitated to. I posted it on Google+ and drew my own version of the map on my whiteboard. That was more than a month ago. It’s taken me weeks of staring at the map on my whiteboard and going back to the report to really understand what it’s saying.
Future Work Skills 2020 identifies six key drivers affecting work in the future: extreme longevity, rise of smart machines and systems, computational world, new media ecology, superstructured organizations and a globally connected world.
The Future Work Skills 2020 report predicts aging people will increasingly demand products and service to keep them healthy and active in their senior years. As people become healthier, they will live longer and work longer.
The report’s observations about the struggle to maintain adequate resources for retirement are more compelling. The trend for people over 60, even over 65, to keep working is evident in our current economy. According to the report, the number of Americans over 60 will increase by 70% by the year 2025. The challenges of an aging population will force us to re-examine our approach to careers. With people working longer, more individuals will have multiple careers and need lifelong learning to prepare them for those career changes.
The ability to understand concepts across multiple disciplines will become an important work skill. According to the report, “The ideal worker of the next decade is “T-shaped”—they bring deep understanding of at least one field, but have the capacity to converse in the language of a broader range of disciplines.”
Rise of smart machines and systems
Devices and systems are getting “smarter” all the time. There are thermostats that learn your habits, a fireplace connected to the Internet and iPhone apps that will analyze your sleep habits. These smart devices and systems will replace human workers in some areas and augment them in others. We will be forced to examine what humans are really good at and cultivate those skills.
One of those skills is sensemaking, the ability to find the deeper meaning in complex information. Machines may be able to take over rote tasks or routine jobs, but they are not good at sensemaking. According to the report, “critical thinking or sense-making will merge as a skill workers increasingly need to capitalize on.”
The world is becoming programmable. Digital data is being integrated with the physical world to create augmented reality (check out this video from the augmented reality browser Layar to get an idea of how this works. Profanity warning: one of the Layar folks drops and entirely appropriate “s”-bomb). Meanwhile sensors, communications and processing power are being built in to everyday items (see the section above).
The result is an enormous amount of data that can help, according to the report, “uncover new patterns and relationships that were previously invisible.”
A world with all that data will favor those with the skills to translate and interpret that data. A programmable world will favor those with programming skills or, at least, and understanding of programming.
New media ecology
The media landscape is becoming dominated by online videos, music mashups, virtual worlds and video games. The Internet, once grounded in text and images, is now the platform for streaming movies, editing video and experience augmented reality. A band recently released an album recorded entirely on an iPhone.
We need to be able to “critically assess and develop content that uses new media forms, and to leverage these media for persuasive communication,” according to the Future Work Skills 2020 report.
I’m not sure why the Future Work Skills 2020 report used the term “superstructured organizations.” It’s a difficult term to explain and understand. I translated it on my whiteboard version of the Future of Work map as “Social media and other online networks drive new forms of production and value creation.”
That might be only slightly less clear, but it’s the best I could do in describing a complicated reality where institutions like medicine, education and science, rooted in knowledge and technology from centuries ago, are being disrupted by the connection, collaboration and openness made possible by new social technologies.
The report site examples in medicine like Curetogether and PatientsLikeMe which allow users to “aggregate their personal health information to allow for clinical trials and emergence of expertise outside of traditional labs and doctors’ offices.” Add to that examples of online gamers working together to contribute to scientific discovery and the growing power of open education resources and you can start to see the way organizations are being changed by social technologies.
The results for the workforce are new ways of being educated and trained, as well as an emphasis on skills in game design, neuroscience and happiness psychology. Understanding online networks, network literacy, will be critical.
Globally connected world
We have been hearing about globalization for years, and it will continue to be a driver of changes in work in the future. According to the report, organizations cannot be satisfied with just having a presence in India, China and other developing countries, they must integrate that presence into their organization in order to remain competitive.
Taken with the “superstructured organizations” driver above, an increase in global interconnectivity will drive the need to workers competent across cultures, skilled in virtual collaboration and able to adapt in a rapidly changing environment.
Overall Future Work Skills 2020 report paints a picture of a challenging future for workers and organizations, but it also provides a road map of skills that we should be developing and nurturing now in order to be effective and employed in the future. 2020 is not that far away.